It's Like Hoosiers Meets Dungeons and Dragons

I like college basketball. I like it almost as much as I like math. So what could be more fun than devising a seed-weighted coin-flipping algorithm for completing my 2010 NCAA bracket?*

After a couple false starts using systems which refused to produce any first-round upsets, I enlisted my most nerd-tastic adviser** to help tweak the details. The result was a copacetic waste of nearly three hours, followed by the most maddening conclusion I could ever have feared.

Teams begin their matchups with 100 points each. I flip a coin*** according to the team's seed number -- thrice for a three-seed, eleven times for an eleven-seed, et cetera -- and for every flip that comes up tails, the team loses three points. To give the underdogs a fighting statistical chance, the final two flips are always worth ten points instead of three. We'll call that the Rock n' Jock Factor.

For example, Texas A&M and Utah State meet in Round One. The Aggies are a five-seed, which means they have five coin-tosses coming their way. Tosses one, two, and three all come up heads. No points deducted. Now, the final two tosses are worth ten each, so I take myself very seriously for those. Toss four lands on tails, and just like that, A&M is down to 90 points. The final toss goes back their way, giving them only one bad toss out of five.

Now Utah State is up, and it's time for the fighting-- Wait... Goddammit. Utah State is also the Aggies?! So the University of Utah are the Utes, and the Utah State Agricultural College are the Aggies? Utah's most famous resident made up a whole religion based on magic invisible golden plates that he got from angels, and the most creative his descendants can get is "Utes" and "Aggies"? Weak.

Anyway, now the Utah State Fighting Narwhals are up. As a twelve-seed, they get twelve coin-tosses. Seven out of the first ten come up tails, and at three points each, that puts USAC down 21 points. Of their final two tosses (the ten-pointers), one more comes up tails, pushing USAC down to a humiliating total of 69 points. Texas A&M wins; dozens of people briefly celebrate.

Everybody got it?

In Round One, a few underdogs managed to find a bone, most notably Minnesota over Xavier, Sam Houston over Baylor, and -- wait for it -- University of California Santa Barbara over Ohio State! I can only assume Evan Turner missed the game while saving a busload of orphans from falling into a crevasse.

Florida State makes a deep run, knocking out top-seeded Syracuse and Butler before succumbing to Kansas State in the Regional Finals. Villanova can't match up with the mighty mighty Gaels**** of Saint Mary's College, and Oklahoma State (now that's more like it) hands Kansas its surprise third loss of the year, setting up a Final Four of Duke(1), Kentucky(1), Oklahoma State(7), and Kansas State(2).

Kansas State can read a map, so they top Oklahoma, but Duke is not to be denied. After six consecutive coin-flip ties, they rip out Kentucky's heart once again.  The Blue Devils then change the "K" in K-State to "Krzyzewski" before finally cutting down the nets in Indy.  (Click to enlarge.)

*Nothing
**Commenter "Ryan", who at age nine submitted an alternative energy proposal to the Army Corps of Engineers
***A 1913 Liberty Head Nickel, since you asked
****Seriously? What ever happened to Bears, Wildcats, and Tigers?
*****HA! There was no fifth footnote!